Wild Card Weekend: Sunday's Games

In the media-hyped world of sports, Saturday’s playoff games offer everything fans want: an insane, cocky-for-no-reason coach (Rex Ryan), a trash-talking prima donna wide receiver (Chad Ochocinco), a playoff winless head coach who often looks like he is flummoxed trying to solve Rubik’s cube (Wade Phillips), and a lethal combination of late-game and playoff failures who have managed to survive their entire careers in the city that hates late-game and playoff failures (Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb).

Sunday? Not so much. Deadpan Belichik, humble Kurt Warner, cool Joe Flacco, and tackling dummy Aaron Rodgers. But what Sunday’s games lack in sizzle, they offer in substance with 7 combined Super Bowl appearances among quarterbacks, lethal passing attacks and defenses that historically can play slug ‘em out type games. With that, let’s check them out. (Home team in CAPS)

NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over Baltimore

OK here’s your matchup. On one side is a team that went 16-0 just two years ago. Their quarterback and head coach have won 3 Super Bowls together in the last decade. They went 8-0 at home this season and beat their opponent earlier this season. The other has a second year head coach, a second year quarterback, had a losing record on the road, and their wins in the last month have come against teams a combined 20 games under .500.

Obvious choice right? Well that went right out the window with Wes Welker’s injury and now some people have jumped on the Ravens bandwagon even with the Patriots’ long history of playoff success. I’m not buying it. New England is a different team at home and know how to win in close games despite this year’s 3-3 record in games decided by 7 points or less (taking out last week’s game where they sat starters for an extended period). The Ravens are 2-5 in these games and have an offense that has struggled. All of these factors point towards a New England victory, so lay the points.

Fantasy Starts

NE: Julian Edelman, WR. With Welker’s injury, a void is created in the Pats passing attack. The focus of Baltimore’s defense will be on Randy Moss, who caught 3 passes for 50 yards and a score in their game earlier this year. That leaves Edelman, who plays much the same way Welker does. Slot receiver running short routes who has the quickness to evade tacklers for bigger gains and more catches. Last week he caught 10 passes for 103 yards. Look for him to be featured again this week.

Bal: Ray Rice, RB. 2,000 total yards on the season gets you on any fantasy start list. Over 1,300 rushing yards and 700 receiving yards and even with a shortage of touchdowns (8), he is a must start. He is their offense, and with the Pats 13th ranked rush defense, he should find some holes and have a productive day.

Fantasy Sits

NE: Any running back. The last time New England had a 100 yard rusher? Week 6 against Tennessee when they put up 59 points. You never know who is going to start or get the majority of carries. Against a top 5 rush defense, just don’t even bother.

Bal: Willis McGahee, RB. Nobody knows what is going to happen with this guy on a week-to-week basis. He could run for 167 and 3 scores (last week at Oakland), or he could have 9 touches for 39 yards (the previous 2 weeks combined). Why rest your fate with him?

Packers (-1.5) over Arizona

This line changes by the minute, with many Green Bay supporters betting the Packers big. It started at Arizona laying 2.5 and has moved a full 4 points during the week. I tend to stay away from the obvious underdogs that everyone is picking (see: New York Jets), but a team that is 7-1 in its last 8 that only lost on a last second touchdown is one you have to take. Arizona has been average at home, and Green Bay has done well on the road. Dom Capers’ 3-4 has turned itself around in the second half, and check out these points allowed in the last 8: 7, 24, 12, 14, 14, 37, 10, 7. One real blip is the 37 allowed to Pittsburgh, but outside of that it has been excellent.

On the other side, Arizona’s defense seems a little spotty, and with the gunslinger Aaron Rodgers coming to town, you have to believe they will put up some points. Green Bay has been a juggernaut, scoring 30+ points 11 times. Fact is, you have to put up a ton of points to beat them. Without Anquan Boldin, I’m not sure the Cardinals will be able to do that and replicate last season’s run to the Super Bowl. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is banged up as well which should mean nice days for Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. I just can’t see Arizona hanging with Green Bay’s offense throughout the day, so take the Packers.

Side note: The over/under here is only 47.5. It’s a total teaser, but you have to take the over here. Either team is capable of scoring 30 points on any day. Just trust me on this. Packers and the over.

Fantasy Starts

GB: Rodgers, QB. He has been stellar this season, with over 4,400 pass yards, a +23 touchdown to INT ratio, and a 103.7 quarterback rating. The only game he didn’t throw a touchdown was a win over Chicago in week 14. Ten times he threw for multiple scores, and 5 of his 7 INTs came in two games (compared to 12 games with none). He is not a good quarterback, he is incredible. A fantasy stud. The fact that you are even reading reasons to start this guy is an insult to fantasy owners everywhere.

Ari: Larry Fitzgerald, WR. The yards haven’t been there in the last 4 weeks (22, 36, 48, 17) but the touchdowns have been all season (13). If not for Boldin’s injury, I would have taken Warner, but now Larry Fitz should have a ton of balls thrown in his direction Sunday. This guy can flat out play, and even if Charles Woodson is on him, there’s only so much you can do against a 6’3” high-leaping monster.

Fantasy Sits

GB: Donald Lee, TE. Look, I wouldn’t sit anybody. That’s why you go with the old backup tight end. Nobody in their right mind would own him, much less start him. Just put any Packer you have in your lineup this weekend, ok? Rodgers, Grant, Jennings, Driver, Jermichael Finley, everybody.

Ari: Anquan Boldin, WR. He is unlikely to play with his injuries, and hasn’t been a top fantasy producer anyway. Only 4 touchdowns on the season and has been a major disappointment, much like Vinny from Jersey Shore. Likeable guy in a favorable situation, but just didn’t come through the way everyone hoped he would, even through flashes of greatness (7/98/2 vs. Minnesota is equivalent to Vinny hooking up with the boss’ girl).