Saturday, January 16, 2010

Divisional Round: Top seeds in action

As we begin to look at this weekend's pivotal divisional round match-ups, its still difficult to forget about the conclusion of Wild-Card weekend in one of the craziest, and fantasy-dream games in recent memory. The Packers-Cardinals combined 96 points scored, close to 1,000 yards of total offense, nine combined passing touchdowns, and heck, a defense score to win the game in overtime, ironically in a game that featured no defense whatsoever. Sounds like fantasy gold to me.

It will be impossible to forget that game, as it will be the highlight of these playoffs for years to come, very similar to the 2009 NBA playoffs with the Celtics/Bulls opening round seven-game saga. Sure the Lakers ultimately won the title, but everyone still talks about the seven overtimes in seven games, and the pure entertainment and excitement of each and every possession in that series.

Saturday's Divisional Round games will the same road teams from last year's Saturday games, when the Cardinals stunned the Panthers and the Ravens buried the Titans. For the two teams to repeat the road success from last year, they will have to go through the two teams that seemed destined for perfect seasons just over a month ago. This go around, its not the likes of Jake Delhomme and Kerry Collins, instead the two best quarterbacks in the NFL today, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. The Colts and Saints seemed destined for a collision course in Miami, but now they have many questions coming in to try to even get past the first test.

4. Arizona Cardinals
1. New Orleans Saints


With Drew Brees and a suddenly hot Kurt Warner facing off in the raucous Superdome, Vegas should be putting the over/under at 100 for this game. The Cardinals offense has clicked on all cylinders in their last five postseason games, with Warner averaging over 300 yards per game, and his top target Larry Fitzgerald with an incredible 10 touchdowns in that span.

The scariest part for the Saints defense entering this game is the offense juggernaut last Sunday was without star receiver Anquan Boldin, as he looks to be out for this game as well. Early Doucet came out of no where for an electrifying two scores, and Steve Breaston looked plenty capable of handling the #2 option behind Fitzgerald.

However, the Cardinals defense, which came up big in crucial during their Super Bowl run last year, was absolutely torched by Aaron Rodgers, with the Packers amassing nine plays of 20 yards or more in the second half.

Well Arizona, if you thought Aaron Rodgers at your house was tough, now picture Drew Brees in his house carving up your secondary. For the Saints, they have lost three in a row coming into the playoffs, with two of those loses coming at home to the Cowboys and the lowly Bucs. They need the crowd to be loud early and often, and Brees must get blind-side protection to avoid Darnell Dockett and a strong Arizona front four.

The winner of this game will be the team that gets the most pressure on the quarterback and avoiding the big play down the middle of the field, where both of these teams specialize with the tremendous speed from both sets of WR's. The biggest question has to be....will we see a punt in this game?

Key Matchup: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Darren Sharper and Saints secondary
Fitz has been ridiculous in his playoff career, and when him and Warner are on target, he simply cannot be stopped. Sharper must make him pay for going up and making those dazzling catches, or it will be a heavy dose of Warner to Fitz in the endzone.

Fantasy Start/Sit

START:
ARI RB Beanie Wells: He has been a force over the second half of the season, and gives the Cardinals a home run threat in the backfield. Expect close to 100 yards and a score, while costing very little in salary cap leagues.

NO RB Reggie Bush- His speed and pass catching out of the backfield will be crucial for New Orleans, and Bush still has the talent to break out in the big spotlight.

SIT:
ARI WR Early Doucet- He made most of his big plays on broken assignments in the Green Bay secondary, so expect the Saints defense to be more disciplined.

NO RB Pierre Thomas- Three broken ribs for a guy that is supposed to be the feature back in the biggest game of the season does not bode well. Start Bush over Thomas.

Prediction: Cardinals. They have proven they can win on the road, and the Saints have not looked right since the Patriots blow-out.


6. Baltimore Ravens
1. Indianapolis Colts

If we look back at the greatest fantasy quarterbacks of the last decade, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would certainly be at the top of the list. For the Ravens to go back to the AFC Championship game, they will have to shut down both of these legendary quarterbacks in successive weeks. So far, so good, as the Ravens punished Tom Brady into three turnovers, making Tom-terrific look human.

Next up is league MVP Peyton Manning, who frankly is in a league of his own from the other top QB's in the league. Like the Saints, the Colts come into the playoffs as a cold #1 seed, having lost two in a row and questions surrounding Coach Jim Caldwell about his benching of his stars in their Week 16 loss to the Jets, ending their perfect season.

All of that talk will be muted if the Colts go on and get back to the Super Bowl, but to do so, they will have to get past a Ravens defense which is finally healthy, with Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs both back as game-changers.

For the Ravens, the offense rediscovered the bread and butter running game that led them to the 2000 Super Bowl, as Ray "Emmitt" Rice along with Willis "don't forget me" McGahee torched the Patriots for over 300 yards rushing. However, this team is not built to comeback, and Joe Flacco's pedestrian 34 yards with a pick is not going to get it done against a very vulnerable Colts secondary. Flacco needs to use his above-average arm and connect on some deep play-action passes, or the eight-man-front the Colts will be deploying will finally catch up to Rice and McGahee.

With the Colts, its very simple. If Manning plays well, and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are open, the Colts win. They have the ability to quick-strike if they are down, and momentum-crushing long drives to suck the life out of their opponent. Aside from the secondary, the Colts defense has been very solid, and if Mathis and Freeney get pressure on Flacco, it could be a very long day for the sophomore. In the end, the game will rest on Peyton Manning's arm, and that's as good a bet as you can make in professional sports.

Fantasy Start/Sit

START: BAL WR Derrick Mason- Went off for 142 yards in their Week 11 meeting, and should fine similar success as Flacco's only reliable target.

IND TE Dallas Clark- He might come with the highest price tag of the TE's this weekend, but he is well worth the investment. Expect two scores and a lot of looks in the red zone.

SIT: BAL RB Willis McGahee- Sure, last week's numbers have him screaming bargain this weekend, but expect Rice to carry the load in a game that certainly will not be 24-0 after the first quarer.

IND QB Peyton Manning- His home numbers are surprisingly down this season, and while he will always be a solid play, go for someone else with more potential this week, as it figures to be a defense-dominated game similar to Week 11.

Prediction: Colts. They will not cover this weekend's line, but you never want to bet against a hungry Peyton Manning. The Ravens lack of a balanced offense will ultimately cost them in this one.

No comments:

Post a Comment