Divisional Round: Sunday's Games

Once again, my partner seems to have all of the high profile games with the two former undefeated in Indianapolis and New Orleans. But once again, my games aren’t shabby either. How could you complain about Tony Romo vs. Brett Favre? Or Rex Ryan’s flab vs. LaDanian Tomlinson’s visor? How could you stay away?

Last week was one of the worst I’ve had picking games (0-4) and I’m not going to let it happen again this week. I was also chided by my partner for my fantasy picks, as apparently I have to pick “outside the box.” I think he was just upset at how well my picks turned out, but I’ll oblige. With all that said, let’s get to the games.

Dallas (+3) over MINNESOTA

Consider me the latest sucker to believe in the Cowboys. The notion that a hot team has an advantage over the team with rest is no joke. Last year, the #1 and #2 seeds were 1-3 in the divisional round. In the last six years, home teams are only 13-11 in the divisional round. So much for that home field advantage everyone talks about.

Even the home field advantage is questionable in this game. Minnesota fans have seen their team go from almost unbeatable to inexplicably soft in a month. They have the worst coach left in Brad Childress, who not only still looks like a pedophile, but also got a 5-year extension in the middle of the season. Has there been a worse organizational decision on a coach since the Nets hired Lawrence Frank?

“Hey, we know you haven’t done anything your entire time here. You haven’t developed the quarterback you wanted to draft a few years ago, you can’t manage the clock, and nobody really likes you. The quarterback you wanted in free agency that we took a media missile for has turned on you and is running this team. But don’t worry, here’s a mega deal so you can torture our fans for even longer!”

Minnesota’s pass rush has slowed down, its offensive line isn’t protecting as well as it should, and Adrian Peterson is fumbling again. Those just happen to be exactly what Dallas thrives against. If you can’t get to Tony Romo, you allow Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to hit Brett Favre, and you turn the ball over, you are in trouble.

I think Dallas gets to Favre, forces turnovers and gets Romo enough time to make good decisions. The Cowboy running game will be effective enough to keep the Vikings defense honest. Take the points and if you’re like me, take the Cowboys straight up.

Fantasy Starts

Dal: Roy Williams, WR. Well I couldn’t pick Miles Austin, Tony Romo, Felix Jones, or Jason Witten, so I took a guy who has had a quiet season. Is he a dog? Yup. Has he been underwhelming? Totally. Does he pose a huge matchup problem for a struggling Minnesota secondary? Absolutely. I’d be a little wary of starting him, but he wouldn’t be a bad choice this week.

Min: Visanthe Shiancoe, TE. Favre loves throwing to him, and caught a career-high 11 touchdowns this season. Once they get in the red zone, they either run Peterson or look for Shiancoe. It’s a good bet he’ll be given a chance at least once in this game.

Fantasy Sits:

Dal: Marion Barber, RB. It’s clear Felix Jones has become the go-to back in Dallas, and Barber’s days are limited. He has become a complete non-factor and cannot be trusted in a fantasy situation.

Min: Favre, QB. Questionable playoff stats lately, going against a ferocious defense, and you just know that he is thinking he has to save the day and be the man. You can never trust a loosey-goosey quarterback who thinks he has to win the game. Stay away and go with one of the other options this weekend.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over NY Jets

Yeah, I picked against the Jets last week, and the proved me wrong. Let’s review the biggest reason I’m picking against them again. The only playoff team the Jets have beaten since Week 2 are the Bengals twice and the Colts. Two of those three games were lay downs. Now they are going against a team who has won 11 straight. The Chargers can do it in a variety of ways. They can certainly pass (Philip Rivers had a QB Rating of 104.4 this season), they can run near the goal line (LaDanian Tomlinson scored 9 touchdowns in his last 7 weeks of playing), they can get out to a fast start (42-17 at Tennessee on Christmas) and they can come from behind (21-20 at the Giants in Week 9).

What gives the Jets the biggest problem is that people are buying into their successful defense. There were receivers open last week in Cincinnati, but Carson Palmer was so bad that he completely missed them. Rivers won’t do that. He eats up the blitz, which is how the Jets get pressure. Lito Sheppard is small and makes too much contact down the field, drawing pass interference penalties. Oh did we mention that he is going up against Malcolm Floyd who is 6’ 5” 225? Looks like a problem to me, and I think the Chargers will exploit that and be able to put up enough points to win this game and (barely) cover the spread.

Fantasy Start:

SD: LaDanian Tomlinson, RB. Again, I can’t pick Rivers, Vincent Jackson, or Antonio Gates, so I’ll go with the running back who hasn’t gotten any love lately. His numbers are down, but he finished the season strong. He enters the postseason rested, as he carried the ball fewer times this year than any other year. The Jets have trouble stopping the run, though, and I see Tomlinson scoring once or twice down near the goal line.

NYJ: Thomas Jones, RB. The Jets can only run the football. The Chargers can’t stop the run. How could you go with anyone else? Jones ran for over 1,400 yards. He’s good for 100 and a score in this one.

Fantasy Sits:

SD: Darren Sproles, RB. As much as Sproles can play, he’s been limited in opportunities this season. He scored 7 touchdowns on the season, and 3 of those were in one game against Tennessee.

NYJ: Braylon Edwards, WR. You shouldn’t start him anyway, with his tendency to drop passes. It’s clear that Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery are the preferred options for Sanchez, who’s opportunities to throw are limited as it is with the running game. Jersey Shore reference: he is The Situation. Talks a big game, thinks he is God’s gift to football, but always drops it when it counts. The Situation never closes. Braylon Edwards never hangs on to a touchdown.