As we head toward the All-Star break and Trade Deadline, this becomes the time where many owners start to evaluate their teams. Here at Fantasy Sports Confidential, we will provide you a list of players every week that you should be looking at to bring aboard your squad. Catering to most average-sized leagues (10-14 teams), these players may be around on the wire.
Owned in less than 70% of Yahoo leagues
(percent owned)
POINT GUARD
Mike Conley, MEM (67%)- Has been awful in his last three games, scoring in single digits in all three, but he is joined by O.J. Mayo in the shooting struggles. This is a young Memphis team poised to go through growing pains, but keep Coonley on your team. He helps in 3PT, AST and STL, making him a valuable commodity. Snap him up if he has been dropped.
Drop: Allen Iverson (68), Kirk Hinrich(53)
Jarrett Jack, TOR (52%)- Good for a 13/5/5/2 with a few threes as well, and Calderon has been hurt for the entire season. While Jack will not light up the scoreboard, he should not be this readily available. He will be starting for the rest of the season, and the Raptors have been hot lately.
Drop: Chris Duhon (48(, Luke Ridnour (39)
SHOOTING GUARD
Courtney Lee, NJ (46%)- Something tells me Devin Harris is dealt at the deadline, and Lee's bright spots this season have come with Harris injured. With 76 steals, he helps in a very difficult category to judge, and has the ability to get more assists with Harris gone. Stash him if you can put up with the lackluster FG%
Drop: Martell Webster (52%), Mike Dunleavy (43%)
Anthony Morrow, GS (36%)- Sure, both Lee and Morrow can be very inconsistent, but at this point of the year, one big game from either can put you in better position to make a playoff push. Take a chance on Morrow, who could see big minutes in a rotation centered around C.J. Watson, Anthony Tolliver, and Coby Karl! Morrow is a great source of 3's at a very reduced price.
Drop: Beno Udrih (33%), Rasual Butler (27%)
SMALL FORWARD
Corey Brewer, MIN (54%) - Has rediscovered his shot lately, including averaging 2.3 3PT's in his last 8 games. Other than turnovers, he will help out big time as the T-wolves are playing their best ball of the season. Also solid with those coveted steals with 68 this season.
Drop: Thaddeus Young (69%), Josh Howard (68%)
Jared Dudley (18%)- This is based on reports of Amare moving on, and the biggest beneficiary might be Dudley, who contributes in every category just with a very low usuage rate. Given 30 minutes a night, and how does 15/8/3/2 with a bunch of 3's sound for a guy at his bargain price?
Drop: Chris Douglas-Roberts (29%), Rasual Butler (29%)
POWER FORWARD
Tyrus Thomas, CHI (59%)- He may be on your cut list, but has way too much potential and way too many rumors swirling around him and his teammates to cut bait. I would actually pick him up the next few weeks with Noah sidelined, and see where he ends up. Like Dudley, given 30 minutes, he could be a beast down the stretch in boards, blocks, and steals.
Drop: Yi Jianlian (52), Tayshaun Prince (40%)
Udonis Haslem, MIA (41%)- Beasley has been banged up lately, but something tells me a Jermaine O'Neal injury is bound to happen sooner or later, making Haslem's ability for 16/9 quite valuable. At the very least, he is getting solid work off the bench, and a very cheap rebound source.
Drop: Andray Blatche (28%), Al Thornton (40%)
CENTER
Robin Lopez, PHX (41%)- Again, if Amare leaves, he eats up at least 30-35 minutes while Frye shifts to PF full-time. Went 10/7/3 in 12 minutes his last time out, and given more minutes, he will be a true bargain.
Drop: Tyson Chandler (35%), Brad Miller (43%)
Eric Dampier, DAL (25%)- Talk about cheap boards! Couple that with a very high FG%, the fact that he is rarely owned is strange. He has been injured, and splits time with Drew Gooden, but to be owned in only 1 of 4 leagues?
Drop: Zydrunas Ilgauskus (29%), Dejuan Blair (25%)
Saturday, February 6, 2010
SUPER BOWL XLIV PREVIEW.....FSC STYLE
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Looks like I am going to handle the big game preview this weekend, just as well since my partner has steered you the wrong way too much in these playoffs.
Among the numerous Super Bowl reports out in the media the last two weeks, we have been swarmed with stories about Peyton Manning's legacy, the validity and trademark of "Who Dat", the impending party of Burbon Street win or lose, and Dwight Freeney's minute by minute update on his crippled ankle.
Well, we are finally ready to talk about the most important thing leading up to the Super Bowl, and that's this marquee matchup of the unquestioned two best teams in football this season, and undoubtedly the two fantasy MVP's this season in Drew Brees and Peyton Manning.
This game has the makings to be the highest scoring Super Bowl in the history of the big game, with 76 combined points needed to eclipse the 1995 Super Bowl between Steve Young's 49ers and they beat the Chargers, 49-26. The location of that game? Well, you guessed, Miami's Joe Robbie (name changed twenty times since) Stadium.
The two games I specifically want to focus on are two defining wins in both team's seasons, and both came against the Dolphins in Miami.
Starting with the underdog Saints, who out there, even in Who Dat nation, thought that this team would be in the Super Bowl after the last two season of mediocrity? Well, keep in mind this team lost out in the NFC Championship game three years, missing out on a date with the Colts in Super Bowl 41, ironically once again, in Miami.
They have maintained a high-octane offense all season long, averaging 30.1 points per game, good for #1 in the NFL. Their game in Miami earlier this year highlighted the quick-strike/turnover-driven team that are now NFC champions. The Saints were down 24-3 late in the second half, but three forced second half turnovers along with over 400 yards of offense capped an improbable 46-34 win, keeping the perfect season alive.
While Drew Brees has the capability to keep with Manning score for score, they must come away with a few turnovers to have any chance up upending the '07 Champs. However, it is that ability to come from behind, something that they have done eight times this season, including both playoff games. While the Saints played a mediocre game all around in the NFC Championship, they showed that resiliency to get the job done when it counted, albeit assisted by a very predictable late-game Brett Favre interception.
For the Saints to win, they need Pierre Thomas and Bush to break some long screens, and Brees needs to stay protected and clean, which may come easier with my next point, Dwight Freeney.
Freeney's ankle has been a huge storyline all week long, and while many believe the Colts will just win by less without him at 100%, I think this goes much further than that. The Colts defense has been so strong in these playoffs because of the offenses they have played. While they have had to deal with Ray Rice and Thomas Jones, the passing attacks of the Ravens and Jets leave alot to be desired, and let's not forget. No Bob Sanders, no Marlin Jackson, and now possibly a very limited Dwight Freeney, arguably the best pass-rusher in the game today.
However, as much as I want to discuss the Colts defense, let's face it, it will all hinge on #18 in this one. Going all the way back to Week 2, Manning and the Colts had the ball for a grand total of 15 minutes against the Dolphins, yet still came away with a 27-23 win. Manning was beyond efficient averaging over 20 yards per throw, and now with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon coming off a combined 276 yards against the best defense in the league, it could be early fireworks for Manning in this one.
Coupled with those two weapons, he has the steady Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne, making the trash-talking from Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams seem foolish. The ONLY way that the Saints can stop the Manning assault is through turnovers, and for what it's worth, Manning committed two in Super Bowl 41.
Those two Miami games give us a benchmark for what these teams are capable of. If the Colts go up early, which I anticipate them doing, the Saints have the firepower to come back. One thing is for sure....this figures to be right in line with the last two exciting Super Bowl's, and while the Colts first Super Bowl win seemed rather easy, they will most certainly need to earn this one.
Prediction: Saints. I have gone against them in both of their first two playoff games, I have gone against them continuing this success all season long. While this pick may be following my heart a bit, I think this Saints team will buck the trend of first-time Super Bowl teams in their first game. They are mentally and physically as tough as the Colts, and it is about time Drew Brees gets rewarded in the biggest way for turning around this once laughable franchise. At one time known as the "Aint's", they can now say the "S" stands for Super.
FANTASY START/SIT
START:
NO WR Devery Henderson - The play-action is a big play in Sean Payton's arsenal, and the way Braylon Edwards was able to separate for a 78 yd score, you have to imagine Brees will go deep to his big play threat.
IND RB Joseph Addai - Looked alot better in the game against the Jets, and something tells me we are going to have more pass interference calls in the end zone, making Addai good for at least two scores.
SIT:
NO RB Reggie Bush - I think a lot of attention will be paid to him in this one, and the Colts do have speedy linebackers that can contain his big play potential.
IND WR Pierre Garcon- In the big game, Manning will stick with Wayne and Clark as option A and B, making Garcon repeating his 11 catch, 152 yard AFC Championship game performance seem unlikely.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
NFC Championship Game
2. Minnesota Vikings 
1. New Orleans SaintsWell, so much for Jerry Jones' dream of having the NFC title game in his home palace against the defending champion Cardinals. Both Minnesota and New Orleans not only dismantled their opponents on Divisional weekend, they both had time to rub salt in the wounds. Final combined score: 79-17!
Even after all the late season struggles these two teams experienced heading into the playoffs, we still get the matchup that looked so appetizing a few months ago.
Two franchises with a propensity to fail when the lights are brightest. Two quarterbacks who would relish at a shot of redemption from their last taste of the championship game. While the theater of the Packers/Cardinals Wild Card extravaganza will be difficult to replicate, these two teams paired in the loudest venue in all of sports, with a trip to Miami on the line, well, let's just say it is going to be a fun 60 minutes of football.
After a 31 point drubbing of Mike Petry's Cowboys, the Vikings come into the Superdome with new-found hope of an unstoppable balanced offense with a defensive front four to strike fear in any offensive line. Throw age out the door, Brett Favre is playing the best, and smartest, football of his illustrious career.
While all-world RB Adrian Peterson struggled to a mediocre 2.7 yard per carry average, the Vikings still managed to put up 34 against what many speculated was the hottest unit coming into the playoffs, the Cowboys defense. If Tim Hightower can break away from this defense, imagine what A.P. is staring at in this game.
I'll say this much Minnesota. Ten years ago you were drubbed 41-0 in the title game by the Giants. You will most certainly be on the scoreboard early and often in this one.
The few downsides for the Vikings in this one starts with Percy Harvin's health as he can be the x-factor for big plays, and also the Vikings having lost three straight road games. Not quite the place you want to go coming in with road struggles.
For the Saints, it all starts and ends with Drew Brees. When the offensive line is protecting his backside, Brees is unstoppable, and showed his precision last weekend with his dissection of a porous Arizona defense. Let's face it, Brees is not only the MVP of the team; he is the MVP of the entire New Orleans area. Everyone is banking on trading in those famous disgraced losing paper bags for plane tickets to Miami.
For as much as the national media rips fellow NFC quarterbacks Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb for coming up short in the big game, Brees still has plenty to prove in the biggest game of his career. His first go around in the title game three years ago, he faced a similar pressure-style defense that neutralized his weapons, and the Saints lost 38-17 to the Bears. The winner of course went on to face the Colts in Super Bowl 41. Now four years later, the Saints may have that same opportunity.
The Vikings defense MUST be able to get pressure with their front four against Brees, or the overrated Vikings secondary will be exposed to Brees and his prolific passing attack.
Conversely, the Saints defense must force turnovers behind the raucous home crowd. Favre and Peterson both have careers marred by critical turnovers, and the Saints defense must force the duo to make mistakes, because they simply do not have the talent to get off the field otherwise.
Prediction: Vikings. Let's be clear. The home crowd will only go so far in this game. For the man who could never win in a dome, suddenly Brett Favre thrives in them. For the man plagued by turnovers in the big games, Favre isn't making them. It took Peyton Manning four tries to get into the Super Bowl, and it will take Brees another year to finally get over the hump. While the heart is hoping the Saints win, the head goes with the better defense and more balanced offense.
Favre and Manning in the Super Bowl. Get your popcorn ready!
Fantasy Start/Sit
START:
MIN RB Adrian Peterson- He certainly has not been the focal point of the offense, which is why I love him in this game. Double team Sidney Rice? Fine, we will just pound you with the best running back in the conference.
NO TE Jeremy Shockey- I firmly believe Minnesota will get pressure on Brees, making Shockey a valuable target, especially in the red zone where the Vikings defense is stingiest.
SIT:
MIN WR Sidney Rice- Had the game of his life last weekend, but if it is true that the Saints will double team him, Favre will go elsewhere. Go with Wayne or Colston before Rice for this week.
NO RB Reggie Bush- Sure I started him last week, and was well rewarded with his best game as a pro. However, everytime we get excited about him and his all-pro talent, he goes back into his shell. The hard hitting Vikings defense will take him out of his game.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
AFC Championship Game
INDIANAPOLIS (-7.5) over NY Jets
The football gods do not look favorably upon the Colts. They reward teams that play hard and give it their all. The Colts, like much of this decade, rested their starters down the stretch, claiming going undefeated was “not a historical achievement.” However, it is historically important for the most consecutive regular season wins record and the most wins in a decade. Not only is this a nonsensical argument, but it angers the football gods.
Thus, they now get the opportunity to extract sweet revenge on them by playing a little déjà vu, bringing the Jets into town, the same Jets that the Colts rolled over against in Week 16 and let into the playoffs. Yes, Jets fans, we know you are claiming it doesn’t matter that they pulled their starters, you had to win the game anyway. And we know that you’re bitter people still discount your wins up to this point, not giving you credit. Truth is, you got helped into the playoffs, but have proven you belong since they started.
Bill Polian must have woken up in a cold sweat every night this week. The reaction of Colts fans and the media around the country if the Colts lose this game would be positively out of control.
Thus, all pressure is on the Colts organization. Not on the players, who know that they did no wrong. It’s on Polian and Jim Caldwell, who have everything to lose in this game.
On the other hand, you have the Jets. The fans used to being tortured in some way, and you just have to figure it’s somehow coming this weekend. This is the exact situation Jets fans fear, whether they will admit it this week or not. They unsuspectingly build up momentum, keep building up hope, and when the Jets fans finally buy into it, POW! A swift kick to the groin, then a right hook to the chin, and while the fans are down, they stomp you on the face with inexplicable mistakes.
Rex Ryan has upset the football gods as well with his brash attitude, putting himself above the sport. After making the playoffs, Ryan famously gave his team a full itinerary from the Wild Card round to their Super Bowl parade. This tactic, while making Jets players believe, rarely works. Much like the start of the Jets season, the players buy in and start talking trash, becoming overconfident and buying into the hype surrounding them. Meanwhile, the Colts have only been spoken about when in reference to Manning, which has always been an indicator of his future success.
All of this means that we have a battle of higher powers. Which will be more destructive? The Colts terrible nightmare or the Jets arrogance and historical failures? I personally believe in the idea of tortured franchises like the Cubs, and for whatever reason, the Jets are one of those franchises waiting for their big moment. I don’t think this is it for them.
Way too many people are on the Jets bandwagon this week for it to actually happen. Peyton is too good to fall flat here.
In short, I look back at the Week 16 game, which many have discounted completely. At the time the Colts pulled their starters, the Jets had accumulated 175 yards on 7 drives, while Indy had 304 yards on their 7 drives. In a 15-10 game, the Colts had 3 scoring drives while only allowing New York a field goal and a kick return for a touchdown. Manning, not particularly sharp that day, was still 14/21 for 192 yards, missing Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne running open a few times for big plays, possibly touchdowns.
Putting all of this together, I find it obvious that I have to pick the Colts. I not only pick them straight up, but I am willing to give the 7.5 points as well. Of course, I’m 0-8 against the spread this postseason, but I can’t really run the table in reverse, can I?
Fantasy Starts
Ind: Reggie Wayne, WR. Too many people have bought into Darrell Revis’ job in the last game between these two. Wayne had 3 catches for 33 yards and no touchdowns, but Wayne was open more often than you think. Manning simply missed, and with more tape on the Jets and his incredible film study, there’s no way he makes the same mistakes again.
NYJ: Thomas Jones, RB. I picked him last week too, and he ran for 105 yards and a touchdown last time these two teams played. You can’t hold him quiet for too long. He’s just too good.
Fantasy Sits
Ind: Running backs. I did this when New England played Baltimore Wild Card weekend with much success. No Colts back has rushed for 100 yards this season, and there is no reason to believe that is going to change this weekend.
NYJ: Braylon Edwards, WR. I also picked him in this spot last weekend, and with his propensity to drop passes, combined with the Jets guaranteed inexplicable mistakes, you know Edwards is the prime candidate to screw something up.
The football gods do not look favorably upon the Colts. They reward teams that play hard and give it their all. The Colts, like much of this decade, rested their starters down the stretch, claiming going undefeated was “not a historical achievement.” However, it is historically important for the most consecutive regular season wins record and the most wins in a decade. Not only is this a nonsensical argument, but it angers the football gods.
Thus, they now get the opportunity to extract sweet revenge on them by playing a little déjà vu, bringing the Jets into town, the same Jets that the Colts rolled over against in Week 16 and let into the playoffs. Yes, Jets fans, we know you are claiming it doesn’t matter that they pulled their starters, you had to win the game anyway. And we know that you’re bitter people still discount your wins up to this point, not giving you credit. Truth is, you got helped into the playoffs, but have proven you belong since they started.
Bill Polian must have woken up in a cold sweat every night this week. The reaction of Colts fans and the media around the country if the Colts lose this game would be positively out of control.
Thus, all pressure is on the Colts organization. Not on the players, who know that they did no wrong. It’s on Polian and Jim Caldwell, who have everything to lose in this game.
On the other hand, you have the Jets. The fans used to being tortured in some way, and you just have to figure it’s somehow coming this weekend. This is the exact situation Jets fans fear, whether they will admit it this week or not. They unsuspectingly build up momentum, keep building up hope, and when the Jets fans finally buy into it, POW! A swift kick to the groin, then a right hook to the chin, and while the fans are down, they stomp you on the face with inexplicable mistakes.
Rex Ryan has upset the football gods as well with his brash attitude, putting himself above the sport. After making the playoffs, Ryan famously gave his team a full itinerary from the Wild Card round to their Super Bowl parade. This tactic, while making Jets players believe, rarely works. Much like the start of the Jets season, the players buy in and start talking trash, becoming overconfident and buying into the hype surrounding them. Meanwhile, the Colts have only been spoken about when in reference to Manning, which has always been an indicator of his future success.
All of this means that we have a battle of higher powers. Which will be more destructive? The Colts terrible nightmare or the Jets arrogance and historical failures? I personally believe in the idea of tortured franchises like the Cubs, and for whatever reason, the Jets are one of those franchises waiting for their big moment. I don’t think this is it for them.
Way too many people are on the Jets bandwagon this week for it to actually happen. Peyton is too good to fall flat here.
In short, I look back at the Week 16 game, which many have discounted completely. At the time the Colts pulled their starters, the Jets had accumulated 175 yards on 7 drives, while Indy had 304 yards on their 7 drives. In a 15-10 game, the Colts had 3 scoring drives while only allowing New York a field goal and a kick return for a touchdown. Manning, not particularly sharp that day, was still 14/21 for 192 yards, missing Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne running open a few times for big plays, possibly touchdowns.
Putting all of this together, I find it obvious that I have to pick the Colts. I not only pick them straight up, but I am willing to give the 7.5 points as well. Of course, I’m 0-8 against the spread this postseason, but I can’t really run the table in reverse, can I?
Fantasy Starts
Ind: Reggie Wayne, WR. Too many people have bought into Darrell Revis’ job in the last game between these two. Wayne had 3 catches for 33 yards and no touchdowns, but Wayne was open more often than you think. Manning simply missed, and with more tape on the Jets and his incredible film study, there’s no way he makes the same mistakes again.
NYJ: Thomas Jones, RB. I picked him last week too, and he ran for 105 yards and a touchdown last time these two teams played. You can’t hold him quiet for too long. He’s just too good.
Fantasy Sits
Ind: Running backs. I did this when New England played Baltimore Wild Card weekend with much success. No Colts back has rushed for 100 yards this season, and there is no reason to believe that is going to change this weekend.
NYJ: Braylon Edwards, WR. I also picked him in this spot last weekend, and with his propensity to drop passes, combined with the Jets guaranteed inexplicable mistakes, you know Edwards is the prime candidate to screw something up.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Divisional Round: Sunday's Games
Once again, my partner seems to have all of the high profile games with the two former undefeated in Indianapolis and New Orleans. But once again, my games aren’t shabby either. How could you complain about Tony Romo vs. Brett Favre? Or Rex Ryan’s flab vs. LaDanian Tomlinson’s visor? How could you stay away?
Last week was one of the worst I’ve had picking games (0-4) and I’m not going to let it happen again this week. I was also chided by my partner for my fantasy picks, as apparently I have to pick “outside the box.” I think he was just upset at how well my picks turned out, but I’ll oblige. With all that said, let’s get to the games.
Dallas (+3) over MINNESOTA
Consider me the latest sucker to believe in the Cowboys. The notion that a hot team has an advantage over the team with rest is no joke. Last year, the #1 and #2 seeds were 1-3 in the divisional round. In the last six years, home teams are only 13-11 in the divisional round. So much for that home field advantage everyone talks about.
Even the home field advantage is questionable in this game. Minnesota fans have seen their team go from almost unbeatable to inexplicably soft in a month. They have the worst coach left in Brad Childress, who not only still looks like a pedophile, but also got a 5-year extension in the middle of the season. Has there been a worse organizational decision on a coach since the Nets hired Lawrence Frank?
“Hey, we know you haven’t done anything your entire time here. You haven’t developed the quarterback you wanted to draft a few years ago, you can’t manage the clock, and nobody really likes you. The quarterback you wanted in free agency that we took a media missile for has turned on you and is running this team. But don’t worry, here’s a mega deal so you can torture our fans for even longer!”
Minnesota’s pass rush has slowed down, its offensive line isn’t protecting as well as it should, and Adrian Peterson is fumbling again. Those just happen to be exactly what Dallas thrives against. If you can’t get to Tony Romo, you allow Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to hit Brett Favre, and you turn the ball over, you are in trouble.
I think Dallas gets to Favre, forces turnovers and gets Romo enough time to make good decisions. The Cowboy running game will be effective enough to keep the Vikings defense honest. Take the points and if you’re like me, take the Cowboys straight up.
Fantasy Starts
Dal: Roy Williams, WR. Well I couldn’t pick Miles Austin, Tony Romo, Felix Jones, or Jason Witten, so I took a guy who has had a quiet season. Is he a dog? Yup. Has he been underwhelming? Totally. Does he pose a huge matchup problem for a struggling Minnesota secondary? Absolutely. I’d be a little wary of starting him, but he wouldn’t be a bad choice this week.
Min: Visanthe Shiancoe, TE. Favre loves throwing to him, and caught a career-high 11 touchdowns this season. Once they get in the red zone, they either run Peterson or look for Shiancoe. It’s a good bet he’ll be given a chance at least once in this game.
Fantasy Sits:
Dal: Marion Barber, RB. It’s clear Felix Jones has become the go-to back in Dallas, and Barber’s days are limited. He has become a complete non-factor and cannot be trusted in a fantasy situation.
Min: Favre, QB. Questionable playoff stats lately, going against a ferocious defense, and you just know that he is thinking he has to save the day and be the man. You can never trust a loosey-goosey quarterback who thinks he has to win the game. Stay away and go with one of the other options this weekend.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over NY Jets
Yeah, I picked against the Jets last week, and the proved me wrong. Let’s review the biggest reason I’m picking against them again. The only playoff team the Jets have beaten since Week 2 are the Bengals twice and the Colts. Two of those three games were lay downs. Now they are going against a team who has won 11 straight. The Chargers can do it in a variety of ways. They can certainly pass (Philip Rivers had a QB Rating of 104.4 this season), they can run near the goal line (LaDanian Tomlinson scored 9 touchdowns in his last 7 weeks of playing), they can get out to a fast start (42-17 at Tennessee on Christmas) and they can come from behind (21-20 at the Giants in Week 9).
What gives the Jets the biggest problem is that people are buying into their successful defense. There were receivers open last week in Cincinnati, but Carson Palmer was so bad that he completely missed them. Rivers won’t do that. He eats up the blitz, which is how the Jets get pressure. Lito Sheppard is small and makes too much contact down the field, drawing pass interference penalties. Oh did we mention that he is going up against Malcolm Floyd who is 6’ 5” 225? Looks like a problem to me, and I think the Chargers will exploit that and be able to put up enough points to win this game and (barely) cover the spread.
Fantasy Start:
SD: LaDanian Tomlinson, RB. Again, I can’t pick Rivers, Vincent Jackson, or Antonio Gates, so I’ll go with the running back who hasn’t gotten any love lately. His numbers are down, but he finished the season strong. He enters the postseason rested, as he carried the ball fewer times this year than any other year. The Jets have trouble stopping the run, though, and I see Tomlinson scoring once or twice down near the goal line.
NYJ: Thomas Jones, RB. The Jets can only run the football. The Chargers can’t stop the run. How could you go with anyone else? Jones ran for over 1,400 yards. He’s good for 100 and a score in this one.
Fantasy Sits:
SD: Darren Sproles, RB. As much as Sproles can play, he’s been limited in opportunities this season. He scored 7 touchdowns on the season, and 3 of those were in one game against Tennessee.
NYJ: Braylon Edwards, WR. You shouldn’t start him anyway, with his tendency to drop passes. It’s clear that Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery are the preferred options for Sanchez, who’s opportunities to throw are limited as it is with the running game. Jersey Shore reference: he is The Situation. Talks a big game, thinks he is God’s gift to football, but always drops it when it counts. The Situation never closes. Braylon Edwards never hangs on to a touchdown.
Last week was one of the worst I’ve had picking games (0-4) and I’m not going to let it happen again this week. I was also chided by my partner for my fantasy picks, as apparently I have to pick “outside the box.” I think he was just upset at how well my picks turned out, but I’ll oblige. With all that said, let’s get to the games.
Dallas (+3) over MINNESOTA
Consider me the latest sucker to believe in the Cowboys. The notion that a hot team has an advantage over the team with rest is no joke. Last year, the #1 and #2 seeds were 1-3 in the divisional round. In the last six years, home teams are only 13-11 in the divisional round. So much for that home field advantage everyone talks about.
Even the home field advantage is questionable in this game. Minnesota fans have seen their team go from almost unbeatable to inexplicably soft in a month. They have the worst coach left in Brad Childress, who not only still looks like a pedophile, but also got a 5-year extension in the middle of the season. Has there been a worse organizational decision on a coach since the Nets hired Lawrence Frank?
“Hey, we know you haven’t done anything your entire time here. You haven’t developed the quarterback you wanted to draft a few years ago, you can’t manage the clock, and nobody really likes you. The quarterback you wanted in free agency that we took a media missile for has turned on you and is running this team. But don’t worry, here’s a mega deal so you can torture our fans for even longer!”
Minnesota’s pass rush has slowed down, its offensive line isn’t protecting as well as it should, and Adrian Peterson is fumbling again. Those just happen to be exactly what Dallas thrives against. If you can’t get to Tony Romo, you allow Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to hit Brett Favre, and you turn the ball over, you are in trouble.
I think Dallas gets to Favre, forces turnovers and gets Romo enough time to make good decisions. The Cowboy running game will be effective enough to keep the Vikings defense honest. Take the points and if you’re like me, take the Cowboys straight up.
Fantasy Starts
Dal: Roy Williams, WR. Well I couldn’t pick Miles Austin, Tony Romo, Felix Jones, or Jason Witten, so I took a guy who has had a quiet season. Is he a dog? Yup. Has he been underwhelming? Totally. Does he pose a huge matchup problem for a struggling Minnesota secondary? Absolutely. I’d be a little wary of starting him, but he wouldn’t be a bad choice this week.
Min: Visanthe Shiancoe, TE. Favre loves throwing to him, and caught a career-high 11 touchdowns this season. Once they get in the red zone, they either run Peterson or look for Shiancoe. It’s a good bet he’ll be given a chance at least once in this game.
Fantasy Sits:
Dal: Marion Barber, RB. It’s clear Felix Jones has become the go-to back in Dallas, and Barber’s days are limited. He has become a complete non-factor and cannot be trusted in a fantasy situation.
Min: Favre, QB. Questionable playoff stats lately, going against a ferocious defense, and you just know that he is thinking he has to save the day and be the man. You can never trust a loosey-goosey quarterback who thinks he has to win the game. Stay away and go with one of the other options this weekend.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over NY Jets
Yeah, I picked against the Jets last week, and the proved me wrong. Let’s review the biggest reason I’m picking against them again. The only playoff team the Jets have beaten since Week 2 are the Bengals twice and the Colts. Two of those three games were lay downs. Now they are going against a team who has won 11 straight. The Chargers can do it in a variety of ways. They can certainly pass (Philip Rivers had a QB Rating of 104.4 this season), they can run near the goal line (LaDanian Tomlinson scored 9 touchdowns in his last 7 weeks of playing), they can get out to a fast start (42-17 at Tennessee on Christmas) and they can come from behind (21-20 at the Giants in Week 9).
What gives the Jets the biggest problem is that people are buying into their successful defense. There were receivers open last week in Cincinnati, but Carson Palmer was so bad that he completely missed them. Rivers won’t do that. He eats up the blitz, which is how the Jets get pressure. Lito Sheppard is small and makes too much contact down the field, drawing pass interference penalties. Oh did we mention that he is going up against Malcolm Floyd who is 6’ 5” 225? Looks like a problem to me, and I think the Chargers will exploit that and be able to put up enough points to win this game and (barely) cover the spread.
Fantasy Start:
SD: LaDanian Tomlinson, RB. Again, I can’t pick Rivers, Vincent Jackson, or Antonio Gates, so I’ll go with the running back who hasn’t gotten any love lately. His numbers are down, but he finished the season strong. He enters the postseason rested, as he carried the ball fewer times this year than any other year. The Jets have trouble stopping the run, though, and I see Tomlinson scoring once or twice down near the goal line.
NYJ: Thomas Jones, RB. The Jets can only run the football. The Chargers can’t stop the run. How could you go with anyone else? Jones ran for over 1,400 yards. He’s good for 100 and a score in this one.
Fantasy Sits:
SD: Darren Sproles, RB. As much as Sproles can play, he’s been limited in opportunities this season. He scored 7 touchdowns on the season, and 3 of those were in one game against Tennessee.
NYJ: Braylon Edwards, WR. You shouldn’t start him anyway, with his tendency to drop passes. It’s clear that Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery are the preferred options for Sanchez, who’s opportunities to throw are limited as it is with the running game. Jersey Shore reference: he is The Situation. Talks a big game, thinks he is God’s gift to football, but always drops it when it counts. The Situation never closes. Braylon Edwards never hangs on to a touchdown.
Divisional Round: Top seeds in action
As we begin to look at this weekend's pivotal divisional round match-ups, its still difficult to forget about the conclusion of Wild-Card weekend in one of the craziest, and fantasy-dream games in recent memory. The Packers-Cardinals combined 96 points scored, close to 1,000 yards of total offense, nine combined passing touchdowns, and heck, a defense score to win the game in overtime, ironically in a game that featured no defense whatsoever. Sounds like fantasy gold to me.
It will be impossible to forget that game, as it will be the highlight of these playoffs for years to come, very similar to the 2009 NBA playoffs with the Celtics/Bulls opening round seven-game saga. Sure the Lakers ultimately won the title, but everyone still talks about the seven overtimes in seven games, and the pure entertainment and excitement of each and every possession in that series.
Saturday's Divisional Round games will the same road teams from last year's Saturday games, when the Cardinals stunned the Panthers and the Ravens buried the Titans. For the two teams to repeat the road success from last year, they will have to go through the two teams that seemed destined for perfect seasons just over a month ago. This go around, its not the likes of Jake Delhomme and Kerry Collins, instead the two best quarterbacks in the NFL today, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. The Colts and Saints seemed destined for a collision course in Miami, but now they have many questions coming in to try to even get past the first test.
4. Arizona Cardinals
1. New Orleans Saints
With Drew Brees and a suddenly hot Kurt Warner facing off in the raucous Superdome, Vegas should be putting the over/under at 100 for this game. The Cardinals offense has clicked on all cylinders in their last five postseason games, with Warner averaging over 300 yards per game, and his top target Larry Fitzgerald with an incredible 10 touchdowns in that span.
The scariest part for the Saints defense entering this game is the offense juggernaut last Sunday was without star receiver Anquan Boldin, as he looks to be out for this game as well. Early Doucet came out of no where for an electrifying two scores, and Steve Breaston looked plenty capable of handling the #2 option behind Fitzgerald.
However, the Cardinals defense, which came up big in crucial during their Super Bowl run last year, was absolutely torched by Aaron Rodgers, with the Packers amassing nine plays of 20 yards or more in the second half.
Well Arizona, if you thought Aaron Rodgers at your house was tough, now picture Drew Brees in his house carving up your secondary. For the Saints, they have lost three in a row coming into the playoffs, with two of those loses coming at home to the Cowboys and the lowly Bucs. They need the crowd to be loud early and often, and Brees must get blind-side protection to avoid Darnell Dockett and a strong Arizona front four.
The winner of this game will be the team that gets the most pressure on the quarterback and avoiding the big play down the middle of the field, where both of these teams specialize with the tremendous speed from both sets of WR's. The biggest question has to be....will we see a punt in this game?
Key Matchup: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Darren Sharper and Saints secondary
Fitz has been ridiculous in his playoff career, and when him and Warner are on target, he simply cannot be stopped. Sharper must make him pay for going up and making those dazzling catches, or it will be a heavy dose of Warner to Fitz in the endzone.
Fantasy Start/Sit
START:
ARI RB Beanie Wells: He has been a force over the second half of the season, and gives the Cardinals a home run threat in the backfield. Expect close to 100 yards and a score, while costing very little in salary cap leagues.
NO RB Reggie Bush- His speed and pass catching out of the backfield will be crucial for New Orleans, and Bush still has the talent to break out in the big spotlight.
SIT:
ARI WR Early Doucet- He made most of his big plays on broken assignments in the Green Bay secondary, so expect the Saints defense to be more disciplined.
NO RB Pierre Thomas- Three broken ribs for a guy that is supposed to be the feature back in the biggest game of the season does not bode well. Start Bush over Thomas.
Prediction: Cardinals. They have proven they can win on the road, and the Saints have not looked right since the Patriots blow-out.
6. Baltimore Ravens
1. Indianapolis Colts
If we look back at the greatest fantasy quarterbacks of the last decade, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would certainly be at the top of the list. For the Ravens to go back to the AFC Championship game, they will have to shut down both of these legendary quarterbacks in successive weeks. So far, so good, as the Ravens punished Tom Brady into three turnovers, making Tom-terrific look human.
Next up is league MVP Peyton Manning, who frankly is in a league of his own from the other top QB's in the league. Like the Saints, the Colts come into the playoffs as a cold #1 seed, having lost two in a row and questions surrounding Coach Jim Caldwell about his benching of his stars in their Week 16 loss to the Jets, ending their perfect season.
All of that talk will be muted if the Colts go on and get back to the Super Bowl, but to do so, they will have to get past a Ravens defense which is finally healthy, with Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs both back as game-changers.
For the Ravens, the offense rediscovered the bread and butter running game that led them to the 2000 Super Bowl, as Ray "Emmitt" Rice along with Willis "don't forget me" McGahee torched the Patriots for over 300 yards rushing. However, this team is not built to comeback, and Joe Flacco's pedestrian 34 yards with a pick is not going to get it done against a very vulnerable Colts secondary. Flacco needs to use his above-average arm and connect on some deep play-action passes, or the eight-man-front the Colts will be deploying will finally catch up to Rice and McGahee.
With the Colts, its very simple. If Manning plays well, and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are open, the Colts win. They have the ability to quick-strike if they are down, and momentum-crushing long drives to suck the life out of their opponent. Aside from the secondary, the Colts defense has been very solid, and if Mathis and Freeney get pressure on Flacco, it could be a very long day for the sophomore. In the end, the game will rest on Peyton Manning's arm, and that's as good a bet as you can make in professional sports.
Fantasy Start/Sit
START: BAL WR Derrick Mason- Went off for 142 yards in their Week 11 meeting, and should fine similar success as Flacco's only reliable target.
IND TE Dallas Clark- He might come with the highest price tag of the TE's this weekend, but he is well worth the investment. Expect two scores and a lot of looks in the red zone.
SIT: BAL RB Willis McGahee- Sure, last week's numbers have him screaming bargain this weekend, but expect Rice to carry the load in a game that certainly will not be 24-0 after the first quarer.
IND QB Peyton Manning- His home numbers are surprisingly down this season, and while he will always be a solid play, go for someone else with more potential this week, as it figures to be a defense-dominated game similar to Week 11.
Prediction: Colts. They will not cover this weekend's line, but you never want to bet against a hungry Peyton Manning. The Ravens lack of a balanced offense will ultimately cost them in this one.
It will be impossible to forget that game, as it will be the highlight of these playoffs for years to come, very similar to the 2009 NBA playoffs with the Celtics/Bulls opening round seven-game saga. Sure the Lakers ultimately won the title, but everyone still talks about the seven overtimes in seven games, and the pure entertainment and excitement of each and every possession in that series.
Saturday's Divisional Round games will the same road teams from last year's Saturday games, when the Cardinals stunned the Panthers and the Ravens buried the Titans. For the two teams to repeat the road success from last year, they will have to go through the two teams that seemed destined for perfect seasons just over a month ago. This go around, its not the likes of Jake Delhomme and Kerry Collins, instead the two best quarterbacks in the NFL today, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. The Colts and Saints seemed destined for a collision course in Miami, but now they have many questions coming in to try to even get past the first test.
4. Arizona Cardinals 
1. New Orleans SaintsWith Drew Brees and a suddenly hot Kurt Warner facing off in the raucous Superdome, Vegas should be putting the over/under at 100 for this game. The Cardinals offense has clicked on all cylinders in their last five postseason games, with Warner averaging over 300 yards per game, and his top target Larry Fitzgerald with an incredible 10 touchdowns in that span.
The scariest part for the Saints defense entering this game is the offense juggernaut last Sunday was without star receiver Anquan Boldin, as he looks to be out for this game as well. Early Doucet came out of no where for an electrifying two scores, and Steve Breaston looked plenty capable of handling the #2 option behind Fitzgerald.
However, the Cardinals defense, which came up big in crucial during their Super Bowl run last year, was absolutely torched by Aaron Rodgers, with the Packers amassing nine plays of 20 yards or more in the second half.
Well Arizona, if you thought Aaron Rodgers at your house was tough, now picture Drew Brees in his house carving up your secondary. For the Saints, they have lost three in a row coming into the playoffs, with two of those loses coming at home to the Cowboys and the lowly Bucs. They need the crowd to be loud early and often, and Brees must get blind-side protection to avoid Darnell Dockett and a strong Arizona front four.
The winner of this game will be the team that gets the most pressure on the quarterback and avoiding the big play down the middle of the field, where both of these teams specialize with the tremendous speed from both sets of WR's. The biggest question has to be....will we see a punt in this game?
Key Matchup: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Darren Sharper and Saints secondary
Fitz has been ridiculous in his playoff career, and when him and Warner are on target, he simply cannot be stopped. Sharper must make him pay for going up and making those dazzling catches, or it will be a heavy dose of Warner to Fitz in the endzone.
Fantasy Start/Sit
START:
ARI RB Beanie Wells: He has been a force over the second half of the season, and gives the Cardinals a home run threat in the backfield. Expect close to 100 yards and a score, while costing very little in salary cap leagues.
NO RB Reggie Bush- His speed and pass catching out of the backfield will be crucial for New Orleans, and Bush still has the talent to break out in the big spotlight.
SIT:
ARI WR Early Doucet- He made most of his big plays on broken assignments in the Green Bay secondary, so expect the Saints defense to be more disciplined.
NO RB Pierre Thomas- Three broken ribs for a guy that is supposed to be the feature back in the biggest game of the season does not bode well. Start Bush over Thomas.
Prediction: Cardinals. They have proven they can win on the road, and the Saints have not looked right since the Patriots blow-out.
6. Baltimore Ravens 
1. Indianapolis ColtsIf we look back at the greatest fantasy quarterbacks of the last decade, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would certainly be at the top of the list. For the Ravens to go back to the AFC Championship game, they will have to shut down both of these legendary quarterbacks in successive weeks. So far, so good, as the Ravens punished Tom Brady into three turnovers, making Tom-terrific look human.
Next up is league MVP Peyton Manning, who frankly is in a league of his own from the other top QB's in the league. Like the Saints, the Colts come into the playoffs as a cold #1 seed, having lost two in a row and questions surrounding Coach Jim Caldwell about his benching of his stars in their Week 16 loss to the Jets, ending their perfect season.
All of that talk will be muted if the Colts go on and get back to the Super Bowl, but to do so, they will have to get past a Ravens defense which is finally healthy, with Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs both back as game-changers.
For the Ravens, the offense rediscovered the bread and butter running game that led them to the 2000 Super Bowl, as Ray "Emmitt" Rice along with Willis "don't forget me" McGahee torched the Patriots for over 300 yards rushing. However, this team is not built to comeback, and Joe Flacco's pedestrian 34 yards with a pick is not going to get it done against a very vulnerable Colts secondary. Flacco needs to use his above-average arm and connect on some deep play-action passes, or the eight-man-front the Colts will be deploying will finally catch up to Rice and McGahee.
With the Colts, its very simple. If Manning plays well, and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are open, the Colts win. They have the ability to quick-strike if they are down, and momentum-crushing long drives to suck the life out of their opponent. Aside from the secondary, the Colts defense has been very solid, and if Mathis and Freeney get pressure on Flacco, it could be a very long day for the sophomore. In the end, the game will rest on Peyton Manning's arm, and that's as good a bet as you can make in professional sports.
Fantasy Start/Sit
START: BAL WR Derrick Mason- Went off for 142 yards in their Week 11 meeting, and should fine similar success as Flacco's only reliable target.
IND TE Dallas Clark- He might come with the highest price tag of the TE's this weekend, but he is well worth the investment. Expect two scores and a lot of looks in the red zone.
SIT: BAL RB Willis McGahee- Sure, last week's numbers have him screaming bargain this weekend, but expect Rice to carry the load in a game that certainly will not be 24-0 after the first quarer.
IND QB Peyton Manning- His home numbers are surprisingly down this season, and while he will always be a solid play, go for someone else with more potential this week, as it figures to be a defense-dominated game similar to Week 11.
Prediction: Colts. They will not cover this weekend's line, but you never want to bet against a hungry Peyton Manning. The Ravens lack of a balanced offense will ultimately cost them in this one.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Wild Card Weekend: Sunday's Games
In the media-hyped world of sports, Saturday’s playoff games offer everything fans want: an insane, cocky-for-no-reason coach (Rex Ryan), a trash-talking prima donna wide receiver (Chad Ochocinco), a playoff winless head coach who often looks like he is flummoxed trying to solve Rubik’s cube (Wade Phillips), and a lethal combination of late-game and playoff failures who have managed to survive their entire careers in the city that hates late-game and playoff failures (Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb).
Sunday? Not so much. Deadpan Belichik, humble Kurt Warner, cool Joe Flacco, and tackling dummy Aaron Rodgers. But what Sunday’s games lack in sizzle, they offer in substance with 7 combined Super Bowl appearances among quarterbacks, lethal passing attacks and defenses that historically can play slug ‘em out type games. With that, let’s check them out. (Home team in CAPS)
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over Baltimore
OK here’s your matchup. On one side is a team that went 16-0 just two years ago. Their quarterback and head coach have won 3 Super Bowls together in the last decade. They went 8-0 at home this season and beat their opponent earlier this season. The other has a second year head coach, a second year quarterback, had a losing record on the road, and their wins in the last month have come against teams a combined 20 games under .500.
Obvious choice right? Well that went right out the window with Wes Welker’s injury and now some people have jumped on the Ravens bandwagon even with the Patriots’ long history of playoff success. I’m not buying it. New England is a different team at home and know how to win in close games despite this year’s 3-3 record in games decided by 7 points or less (taking out last week’s game where they sat starters for an extended period). The Ravens are 2-5 in these games and have an offense that has struggled. All of these factors point towards a New England victory, so lay the points.
Fantasy Starts
NE: Julian Edelman, WR. With Welker’s injury, a void is created in the Pats passing attack. The focus of Baltimore’s defense will be on Randy Moss, who caught 3 passes for 50 yards and a score in their game earlier this year. That leaves Edelman, who plays much the same way Welker does. Slot receiver running short routes who has the quickness to evade tacklers for bigger gains and more catches. Last week he caught 10 passes for 103 yards. Look for him to be featured again this week.
Bal: Ray Rice, RB. 2,000 total yards on the season gets you on any fantasy start list. Over 1,300 rushing yards and 700 receiving yards and even with a shortage of touchdowns (8), he is a must start. He is their offense, and with the Pats 13th ranked rush defense, he should find some holes and have a productive day.
Fantasy Sits
NE: Any running back. The last time New England had a 100 yard rusher? Week 6 against Tennessee when they put up 59 points. You never know who is going to start or get the majority of carries. Against a top 5 rush defense, just don’t even bother.
Bal: Willis McGahee, RB. Nobody knows what is going to happen with this guy on a week-to-week basis. He could run for 167 and 3 scores (last week at Oakland), or he could have 9 touches for 39 yards (the previous 2 weeks combined). Why rest your fate with him?
Packers (-1.5) over Arizona
This line changes by the minute, with many Green Bay supporters betting the Packers big. It started at Arizona laying 2.5 and has moved a full 4 points during the week. I tend to stay away from the obvious underdogs that everyone is picking (see: New York Jets), but a team that is 7-1 in its last 8 that only lost on a last second touchdown is one you have to take. Arizona has been average at home, and Green Bay has done well on the road. Dom Capers’ 3-4 has turned itself around in the second half, and check out these points allowed in the last 8: 7, 24, 12, 14, 14, 37, 10, 7. One real blip is the 37 allowed to Pittsburgh, but outside of that it has been excellent.
On the other side, Arizona’s defense seems a little spotty, and with the gunslinger Aaron Rodgers coming to town, you have to believe they will put up some points. Green Bay has been a juggernaut, scoring 30+ points 11 times. Fact is, you have to put up a ton of points to beat them. Without Anquan Boldin, I’m not sure the Cardinals will be able to do that and replicate last season’s run to the Super Bowl. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is banged up as well which should mean nice days for Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. I just can’t see Arizona hanging with Green Bay’s offense throughout the day, so take the Packers.
Side note: The over/under here is only 47.5. It’s a total teaser, but you have to take the over here. Either team is capable of scoring 30 points on any day. Just trust me on this. Packers and the over.
Fantasy Starts
GB: Rodgers, QB. He has been stellar this season, with over 4,400 pass yards, a +23 touchdown to INT ratio, and a 103.7 quarterback rating. The only game he didn’t throw a touchdown was a win over Chicago in week 14. Ten times he threw for multiple scores, and 5 of his 7 INTs came in two games (compared to 12 games with none). He is not a good quarterback, he is incredible. A fantasy stud. The fact that you are even reading reasons to start this guy is an insult to fantasy owners everywhere.
Ari: Larry Fitzgerald, WR. The yards haven’t been there in the last 4 weeks (22, 36, 48, 17) but the touchdowns have been all season (13). If not for Boldin’s injury, I would have taken Warner, but now Larry Fitz should have a ton of balls thrown in his direction Sunday. This guy can flat out play, and even if Charles Woodson is on him, there’s only so much you can do against a 6’3” high-leaping monster.
Fantasy Sits
GB: Donald Lee, TE. Look, I wouldn’t sit anybody. That’s why you go with the old backup tight end. Nobody in their right mind would own him, much less start him. Just put any Packer you have in your lineup this weekend, ok? Rodgers, Grant, Jennings, Driver, Jermichael Finley, everybody.
Ari: Anquan Boldin, WR. He is unlikely to play with his injuries, and hasn’t been a top fantasy producer anyway. Only 4 touchdowns on the season and has been a major disappointment, much like Vinny from Jersey Shore. Likeable guy in a favorable situation, but just didn’t come through the way everyone hoped he would, even through flashes of greatness (7/98/2 vs. Minnesota is equivalent to Vinny hooking up with the boss’ girl).
Sunday? Not so much. Deadpan Belichik, humble Kurt Warner, cool Joe Flacco, and tackling dummy Aaron Rodgers. But what Sunday’s games lack in sizzle, they offer in substance with 7 combined Super Bowl appearances among quarterbacks, lethal passing attacks and defenses that historically can play slug ‘em out type games. With that, let’s check them out. (Home team in CAPS)
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over Baltimore
OK here’s your matchup. On one side is a team that went 16-0 just two years ago. Their quarterback and head coach have won 3 Super Bowls together in the last decade. They went 8-0 at home this season and beat their opponent earlier this season. The other has a second year head coach, a second year quarterback, had a losing record on the road, and their wins in the last month have come against teams a combined 20 games under .500.
Obvious choice right? Well that went right out the window with Wes Welker’s injury and now some people have jumped on the Ravens bandwagon even with the Patriots’ long history of playoff success. I’m not buying it. New England is a different team at home and know how to win in close games despite this year’s 3-3 record in games decided by 7 points or less (taking out last week’s game where they sat starters for an extended period). The Ravens are 2-5 in these games and have an offense that has struggled. All of these factors point towards a New England victory, so lay the points.
Fantasy Starts
NE: Julian Edelman, WR. With Welker’s injury, a void is created in the Pats passing attack. The focus of Baltimore’s defense will be on Randy Moss, who caught 3 passes for 50 yards and a score in their game earlier this year. That leaves Edelman, who plays much the same way Welker does. Slot receiver running short routes who has the quickness to evade tacklers for bigger gains and more catches. Last week he caught 10 passes for 103 yards. Look for him to be featured again this week.
Bal: Ray Rice, RB. 2,000 total yards on the season gets you on any fantasy start list. Over 1,300 rushing yards and 700 receiving yards and even with a shortage of touchdowns (8), he is a must start. He is their offense, and with the Pats 13th ranked rush defense, he should find some holes and have a productive day.
Fantasy Sits
NE: Any running back. The last time New England had a 100 yard rusher? Week 6 against Tennessee when they put up 59 points. You never know who is going to start or get the majority of carries. Against a top 5 rush defense, just don’t even bother.
Bal: Willis McGahee, RB. Nobody knows what is going to happen with this guy on a week-to-week basis. He could run for 167 and 3 scores (last week at Oakland), or he could have 9 touches for 39 yards (the previous 2 weeks combined). Why rest your fate with him?
Packers (-1.5) over Arizona
This line changes by the minute, with many Green Bay supporters betting the Packers big. It started at Arizona laying 2.5 and has moved a full 4 points during the week. I tend to stay away from the obvious underdogs that everyone is picking (see: New York Jets), but a team that is 7-1 in its last 8 that only lost on a last second touchdown is one you have to take. Arizona has been average at home, and Green Bay has done well on the road. Dom Capers’ 3-4 has turned itself around in the second half, and check out these points allowed in the last 8: 7, 24, 12, 14, 14, 37, 10, 7. One real blip is the 37 allowed to Pittsburgh, but outside of that it has been excellent.
On the other side, Arizona’s defense seems a little spotty, and with the gunslinger Aaron Rodgers coming to town, you have to believe they will put up some points. Green Bay has been a juggernaut, scoring 30+ points 11 times. Fact is, you have to put up a ton of points to beat them. Without Anquan Boldin, I’m not sure the Cardinals will be able to do that and replicate last season’s run to the Super Bowl. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is banged up as well which should mean nice days for Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. I just can’t see Arizona hanging with Green Bay’s offense throughout the day, so take the Packers.
Side note: The over/under here is only 47.5. It’s a total teaser, but you have to take the over here. Either team is capable of scoring 30 points on any day. Just trust me on this. Packers and the over.
Fantasy Starts
GB: Rodgers, QB. He has been stellar this season, with over 4,400 pass yards, a +23 touchdown to INT ratio, and a 103.7 quarterback rating. The only game he didn’t throw a touchdown was a win over Chicago in week 14. Ten times he threw for multiple scores, and 5 of his 7 INTs came in two games (compared to 12 games with none). He is not a good quarterback, he is incredible. A fantasy stud. The fact that you are even reading reasons to start this guy is an insult to fantasy owners everywhere.
Ari: Larry Fitzgerald, WR. The yards haven’t been there in the last 4 weeks (22, 36, 48, 17) but the touchdowns have been all season (13). If not for Boldin’s injury, I would have taken Warner, but now Larry Fitz should have a ton of balls thrown in his direction Sunday. This guy can flat out play, and even if Charles Woodson is on him, there’s only so much you can do against a 6’3” high-leaping monster.
Fantasy Sits
GB: Donald Lee, TE. Look, I wouldn’t sit anybody. That’s why you go with the old backup tight end. Nobody in their right mind would own him, much less start him. Just put any Packer you have in your lineup this weekend, ok? Rodgers, Grant, Jennings, Driver, Jermichael Finley, everybody.
Ari: Anquan Boldin, WR. He is unlikely to play with his injuries, and hasn’t been a top fantasy producer anyway. Only 4 touchdowns on the season and has been a major disappointment, much like Vinny from Jersey Shore. Likeable guy in a favorable situation, but just didn’t come through the way everyone hoped he would, even through flashes of greatness (7/98/2 vs. Minnesota is equivalent to Vinny hooking up with the boss’ girl).
Wild Card Weekend: Saturday's Games
5.
GAME PREVIEW
The first match up of Wild Card weekend happens to be the rematch of the final regular season game of the 2009 season. In a win or go home game for the Jets, they absolutely throttled the Bengals, holding them to
Now the rematch changes venues and the stakes are much higher, however the keys to victory for the both teams have not changed. For the Jets, they need a manageable, turnover free game from rookie QB Mark Sanchez, who has stayed relatively mistake-free the last two weeks in must-win games. The rushing attack headed by Thomas Jones needs to be the focal part of their offense for the Jets to have success, especially with Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph commanding Cincy’s secondary.
For the Bengals, Cedric Benson has been a workhorse all season long, and is well rested after having off last weekend to continue nursing a hamstring injury he suffered earlier in the season. Many will point to the experience difference between the two quarterbacks in this game, but keep in mind, Carson Palmer has thrown exactly one pass in his postseason career after suffering a devastating injury in 2005 against the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers. Palmer’s favorite target, Ochocinco, is listed as questionable for the game, however all signs are pointing to him playing in this game. They will need others to step up in the passing game with stud all-pro CB Darrelle Revis shadowing Ochocinco, Two strong defenses with two suspect offenses figures to make the first game of Wild Card weekend a low scoring, defensive affair.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR Chad Ochocinco vs. CD Darrelle Revis
Ochocinco once again opened his mouth to the media last week, calling out Revis who has done nothing but shut down every #1 WR the Jets have come across this year. With 85 already hobbling, look for Revis to try to jam Ochocinco at the line, forcing Palmer to look elsewhere.
PLAYOFF FANTASY START/SIT
NYJ
START: RB Thomas Jones- He will be good for
SIT: WR Braylon Edwards- Sanchez will have difficulties against the Cincy secondary, making Edwards deep play potential even more limited.
CIN
START: Bengals Defense- Sanchez is good for at least two turnovers in this one, and if the Bengals can get some pressure, the sacks will mount on the rookie.
SIT: WR Chad Ochocinco- He will lead the team in targets, but expect Revis and the Jets to contain him all day.
PREDICTION: A few weeks ago, the Bengals were looked at as a possible Super Bowl contender after sweeping the Ravens and Steelers. They will not make it past the first round once again, and the team that many claimed “backed-in” to the playoffs will live to fight another week. JETS
6.
GAME PREVIEW
The second game of Wild Card Weekend is another rematch of a Week 17 game, and another repeat of a shutout game, in which the Cowboys throttled the Eagles 24-0. Throughout the week, the talk of the previous Cowboys December woes has gone away, replaced with many of the experts picking “
The Eagles come into this game as an 11-5 number six seed, which shows how strong the NFC has been this year. However, the Eagles are 0-4 against current playoff teams, so when they have been tested, they have come up short. The defense especially has been awful, allowing close to 23 points per game in those four loses. The Eagles certainly have the firepower to win this game and make a run in the playoffs with the offensive weapons at their disposal; however the team showed their youth last week with another Donovan McNabb big-game clunker. The Eagles passed the ball an astounding 19 times in 23 plays in the first half against the Cowboys last week, and they will need to get back to some kind of balance to keep the
For the Cowboys, the balanced attack on offense coupled with the hottest unit in the league (the Boys defense) has allowed them to come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and after knocking off the previously undefeated Saints, they have a newfound confidence that will be very difficult to stop in this game. The much maligned Tony Romo has overcome his December demons, averaging over
MATCHUP TO WATCH: RB’s Marion Barber and Felix Jones vs. Eagles D
The opening drive of last week’s beat down featured gashing runs by the Cowboys version of “thunder and lightning”, and that balance on offense will be the ultimate key to who wins this game. If the Eagles allow these two backs to run all over them, it will make Romo’s job much easier, and make this already hesitant defense to rethink blitzing the quarterback.
PLAYOFF FANTASY START/SIT
PHI
START: TE Brent Celek- He has become McNabb’s favorite and most reliable target, and with the heavy blitz expected, look for him to get a lot of check-downs and big gains.
SIT: RB Brian Westbrook- Might have a small number value in your league which would look like a bargain, but Westbrook is not the same back anymore and will have a tough time making cuts against this fast Dallas defense.
DAL
START: RB Felix Jones- He is quietly averaging over seven yards per rush, and his workload will be even more increased as the Cowboys will look for big plays from their backfield. A great value pick.
SIT: QB Tony Romo- While he has been hot, look for him to commit a few turnovers, and with guys like Brady, Rodgers, and Warner playing this weekend, it would be best to sit Romo.
PREDICTION While the historical stats would suggest the Eagles would run away with this game, the Cowboys are simply too hot after coming off the blowout from last weekend. Expect a close, high scoring game. COWBOYS
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