AFC Championship Game

INDIANAPOLIS (-7.5) over NY Jets

The football gods do not look favorably upon the Colts. They reward teams that play hard and give it their all. The Colts, like much of this decade, rested their starters down the stretch, claiming going undefeated was “not a historical achievement.” However, it is historically important for the most consecutive regular season wins record and the most wins in a decade. Not only is this a nonsensical argument, but it angers the football gods.

Thus, they now get the opportunity to extract sweet revenge on them by playing a little déjà vu, bringing the Jets into town, the same Jets that the Colts rolled over against in Week 16 and let into the playoffs. Yes, Jets fans, we know you are claiming it doesn’t matter that they pulled their starters, you had to win the game anyway. And we know that you’re bitter people still discount your wins up to this point, not giving you credit. Truth is, you got helped into the playoffs, but have proven you belong since they started.

Bill Polian must have woken up in a cold sweat every night this week. The reaction of Colts fans and the media around the country if the Colts lose this game would be positively out of control.

Thus, all pressure is on the Colts organization. Not on the players, who know that they did no wrong. It’s on Polian and Jim Caldwell, who have everything to lose in this game.

On the other hand, you have the Jets. The fans used to being tortured in some way, and you just have to figure it’s somehow coming this weekend. This is the exact situation Jets fans fear, whether they will admit it this week or not. They unsuspectingly build up momentum, keep building up hope, and when the Jets fans finally buy into it, POW! A swift kick to the groin, then a right hook to the chin, and while the fans are down, they stomp you on the face with inexplicable mistakes.

Rex Ryan has upset the football gods as well with his brash attitude, putting himself above the sport. After making the playoffs, Ryan famously gave his team a full itinerary from the Wild Card round to their Super Bowl parade. This tactic, while making Jets players believe, rarely works. Much like the start of the Jets season, the players buy in and start talking trash, becoming overconfident and buying into the hype surrounding them. Meanwhile, the Colts have only been spoken about when in reference to Manning, which has always been an indicator of his future success.

All of this means that we have a battle of higher powers. Which will be more destructive? The Colts terrible nightmare or the Jets arrogance and historical failures? I personally believe in the idea of tortured franchises like the Cubs, and for whatever reason, the Jets are one of those franchises waiting for their big moment. I don’t think this is it for them.

Way too many people are on the Jets bandwagon this week for it to actually happen. Peyton is too good to fall flat here.

In short, I look back at the Week 16 game, which many have discounted completely. At the time the Colts pulled their starters, the Jets had accumulated 175 yards on 7 drives, while Indy had 304 yards on their 7 drives. In a 15-10 game, the Colts had 3 scoring drives while only allowing New York a field goal and a kick return for a touchdown. Manning, not particularly sharp that day, was still 14/21 for 192 yards, missing Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne running open a few times for big plays, possibly touchdowns.

Putting all of this together, I find it obvious that I have to pick the Colts. I not only pick them straight up, but I am willing to give the 7.5 points as well. Of course, I’m 0-8 against the spread this postseason, but I can’t really run the table in reverse, can I?

Fantasy Starts

Ind: Reggie Wayne, WR. Too many people have bought into Darrell Revis’ job in the last game between these two. Wayne had 3 catches for 33 yards and no touchdowns, but Wayne was open more often than you think. Manning simply missed, and with more tape on the Jets and his incredible film study, there’s no way he makes the same mistakes again.

NYJ: Thomas Jones, RB. I picked him last week too, and he ran for 105 yards and a touchdown last time these two teams played. You can’t hold him quiet for too long. He’s just too good.

Fantasy Sits

Ind: Running backs. I did this when New England played Baltimore Wild Card weekend with much success. No Colts back has rushed for 100 yards this season, and there is no reason to believe that is going to change this weekend.

NYJ: Braylon Edwards, WR. I also picked him in this spot last weekend, and with his propensity to drop passes, combined with the Jets guaranteed inexplicable mistakes, you know Edwards is the prime candidate to screw something up.